Most losses come from stake size, not from being wrong. A framework keeps you in the game long enough for good calls to pay.
Start with your own number
Before you look at the market, write down the probability you would give the event. If you say 60% and the market says 45%, you have a 15-point edge. If your number and the market agree, there is no trade — however strongly you feel.
Size to the edge
A simple rule: risk a small fixed share of your balance, scaled by how big your edge is. A large edge earns a full-size stake; a small edge earns a fraction of one. Never let a single market hold more than a modest slice of your wallet.
Respect uncertainty
Your estimate is an estimate. Halve the position you first thought of when the event is far away, information is thin, or the resolution source is unfamiliar.
Review, do not rerun
Track the calls where you were right for the wrong reason. Those, not the losses, are what quietly damages a record.