A prediction market lets you trade on the outcome of a real-world event — an election, a football match, a policy decision, a price level. Instead of an expert telling you what is likely to happen, thousands of people put money behind their own view, and the price that comes out of all that trading is the crowd's live answer.
Every market on TradeBanta asks one clear question with two sides: YES and NO. "Will this bill pass before October 1?" You take the side you believe in, at the price the crowd is currently offering.
The price is a probability
This is the single idea that makes prediction markets click. A market trading at 40% YES means the crowd currently rates the event about 40% likely. Prices move between 1% and 99% as new information arrives and as people trade. Nothing else needs decoding: if you can read a percentage, you can read the market.
The cheaper side always pays more if it wins, because it is the less likely side. That relationship is not a promotion or a special offer — it falls directly out of the probability.
What you win
Your return is roughly 1 ÷ probability. Buying YES at 40% pays about 2.50× your stake if YES resolves true. At 80% the same stake pays about 1.25×, because you are backing something the crowd already expects. The price you see already includes our margin — there is nothing added at confirmation, and nothing deducted from a losing trade beyond the stake itself.
Where the price comes from
Prices move because people trade, not because a company decides. When news breaks — a squad announcement, a court ruling, a fresh poll — traders who believe the news matters buy the side it favours, and the probability moves until it settles at a level people are willing to trade both ways at. That is why an active market often reacts before the headlines do.
Settlement
Every market lists a close time and the source used to decide the outcome, before you place a trade. At the close time the market locks and no new trades are accepted. When the event is decided, the market resolves against that named source and winnings land in your wallet automatically — there is nothing to claim.
If the event is cancelled, or the outcome cannot be verified, the market is voided and every stake is refunded in full. Voiding is a last resort, not a way to settle a difficult market.
You are not locked in
A trade is not a ticket you have to hold to the final whistle. You can cash out a position before a market closes: we quote the current value of your position from the live probability, so you can take profit early, or cut a loss when you change your mind. The cash-out guide covers how that value is worked out.
Why people trade them
- You trade what you already follow. If you watch Nigerian politics, or the Premier League, or crypto closely, you already hold opinions the market prices.
- You get feedback. A market settles, so you find out whether your reasoning was right — not just whether it felt right.
- You can change your mind. New information is actionable, because you can exit.
Start here
Read how prediction markets work for the mechanics of an order, then browse a subject you know: politics, sports, crypto, or markets by league.