Cashing out means closing a position before the market closes, at its current value, instead of waiting for the result. It is the feature that makes a prediction market feel like trading rather than a one-way wager: you can act on new information at any point while the market is open.
How the value is worked out
The cash-out value comes from the live probability of your side, applied to the position you hold. If you bought YES at 40% and the market has moved to 60%, your side is now more likely than when you entered, so your position is worth more than you paid. If the market has drifted to 25%, it is worth less.
Two other things shape the exact quote:
- Available interest on the other side. Your exit has to be absorbed by the market. A position that looks profitable on the headline number can be worth noticeably less if there is thin interest opposite it.
- Time left. As a market nears its close, the price converges on 0% or 100%, so the room for value to swing shrinks.
When cash out is available
While a market is open and trading, you can request a cash-out quote and accept it. Once a market locks at its close time, positions run to settlement — there is no exit after the lock, because the answer is effectively known. In a very thin or fast-moving market the quote may be worse than you expect, or may need to be refreshed; that is the market telling you how much real interest there is on the other side.
Good reasons to cash out
- Your thesis already paid. The move you expected has happened, well before the event. Holding on adds risk without adding insight.
- The story changed. An injury, a ruling, a fresh number — the reason you entered no longer holds. Exiting is cheaper than hoping.
- Your position got too big for you. Value swings, and a position that was comfortable at entry may not be now.
- You need the balance for a better price elsewhere. Capital tied up in a market you barely have an edge in is capital doing nothing.
Weak reasons to cash out
- Nerves near the end. If your reasoning is unchanged and the price is unchanged, the only thing that moved is your comfort.
- Locking in a tiny profit, repeatedly. Exiting every position a few points onside caps your winners while your losers stay full-size.
- Escaping a wide market in a panic. In a thin market the exit itself costs you. Sizing down at entry prevents this better than cashing out does.
Use it deliberately
Decide at entry what would make you exit early — a price level, a piece of news, a date. Then cash out because that condition happened, not because the scoreboard made you anxious. Position size does most of the work here; our guide on sizing trades by edge explains why a smaller stake removes most of the urge to bail.
Related reading
Depth and spread explains why exits cost more in thin markets, and settlement and resolution covers what happens to a position you decide to hold. To see live cash-out prices in action, open a market in sports or browse by league.